It seems as if I’m stuck in a 2-2 rut again, because last week’s column produced another .500 Saturday. North Texas covered as an underdog in a wild finish and UCLA-Colorado ended well under the total, but Florida and Washington were simply bad picks. I’m 18-14 on the season.
This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything (another favorite or underdog in a game that might be flying under the radar or a total, for instance). Hopefully we’ll all be in good shape by the time the clock hits zero at the national championship game in Houston on Jan. 8.
All spreads were taken Wednesday from DraftKings Sportsbook. All times Eastern.
The game of the week
No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama
7:45 p.m., CBS
The pick: over 60.5 points
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LSU has a lights-out offense and an atrocious defense. Alabama has an improving offense and a defense that’s good but not great. I think that will lead to a high-scoring affair in Tuscaloosa.
Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels paces an offense that leads the nation in expected points added per play and is second in success rate. Daniels has 25 touchdown passes, tied with USC’s Caleb Williams for tops in the nation; averages a national-best 11.5 yards per attempt; and has the second-best QBR mark in the country behind Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. The Crimson Tide’s passing defense has allowed at least 9.7 yards per attempt in each of its past five games and now faces the best quarterback it’ll see all season.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe isn’t in Daniels’s league and has struggled to stay upright, getting sacked 30 times (including 15 in the past three games alone). But LSU hasn’t been able to stop any team with an offense that even approaches competency — it ranks 117th nationally in expected points allowed per play — and enters this game with a host of injuries and absences on defense. Mekhi Wingo, who has the highest Pro Football Focus grade of any LSU defensive player and is second on the team in sacks, will miss the game after undergoing surgery over the Tigers’ bye week. Starting cornerback Zy Alexander also is out after suffering an injury in LSU’s previous game against Army, and fellow defensive backs Denver Harris and Duce Chestnut remain “unavailable,” according to Coach Brian Kelly.
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LSU games are 14-0 to the over dating back to last season, and I think that continues here.
The favorite
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State
6 p.m., ESPN Plus
The pick: New Mexico State -3
A round of applause, please, for what Coach Jerry Kill has done at New Mexico State, one of the hardest places in the nation to win. Last year, Kill’s first in Las Cruces, the Aggies earned only the fifth bowl appearance in program history and they’ll be bowl-eligible again with a win Saturday against Middle Tennessee. I think they get it done in style.
New Mexico State’s schedule has been forgiving, to say the least, particularly when it comes to its opponents’ rushing defenses: Of the Aggies’ nine opponents, only one ranks better than 100th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (that would be Liberty, which ranks 31st, but New Mexico State still managed to average 7.08 yards per carry against the Flames on Sept. 9). The Aggies have taken full advantage of this, and they’re averaging 6.06 yards per carry for the season, which is worse than only Oregon. Quarterback Diego Pavia and running backs Star Thomas, Jamoni Jones and Ahmonte Watkins each have more than 40 carries on the season, and three of them are averaging at least 5.3 yards per carry. Watkins is averaging a gaudy 11.2 yards per tote.
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Middle Tennessee continues that trend for New Mexico State’s opponents, ranking 101st in rushing yards allowed per game even though it has played two teams (Colorado State and Louisiana Tech) that barely ever run the ball and aren’t very good at it when they try. The Blue Raiders last were seen allowing Liberty to rush for 401 yards and 6.57 yards per carry in a 42-35 loss on Oct. 17.
Pavia also has thrown 17 touchdown passes, and the Blue Raiders’ passing defense isn’t any better than their rushing defense (17 passing touchdowns allowed, No. 121 in the nation in opponents’ passing success rate).
SP+, a measure of overall efficiency, projects New Mexico State to win by about nine, and I can’t disagree. Take the favorite.
The underdog
Boise State at Fresno State
10 p.m., CBS Sports Network
The pick: Boise State +3
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Boise State is just 4-4, but a closer look at its schedule suggests that record might be a little deceiving.
In a 35-32 loss at Memphis on Sept. 30, the Broncos outgained the Tigers in terms of yards per play (7.4 to 7.1) but had a third-quarter field goal attempt blocked and returned for a touchdown, which gave Memphis the lead for good. Coach Andy Avalos also made the baffling decision to punt from the Memphis 38-yard line while trailing by only four points early in the fourth quarter. Memphis padded its lead with a touchdown on its next possession, and the Broncos couldn’t come back from there. Their postgame win expectancy was 77.6 percent, according to statistics compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
Two weeks later at Colorado State, Boise State took a 30-10 lead with 6:12 remaining but allowed the Rams to score 21 points over the final 4:01, including the game-winning touchdown with one second remaining. The Broncos again outgained their opponent in terms of yards per play (5.8 to 5.3) but surrendered that big lead thanks in part to a successful onside kick and a pass-interference call on a fourth-down Colorado State incompletion. The Broncos’ postgame win expectancy in that one was 72.6 percent.
Imagine what this spread would be if Boise State were 6-2 or even 7-1 — the Broncos also lost to Central Florida this season on a field goal at the final gun — instead of 4-4. Boise State also is coming off a 32-7 demolition of a pretty good Wyoming team that handed Fresno State (7-1) its only loss, while the Bulldogs have labored to win their past two games over Utah State and UNLV (they were outgained in terms of yards per play in both, and the Runnin’ Rebels advanced to the Fresno State 2 and 8 over their final two drives this past Saturday yet came away with no points in a 31-24 loss).
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This seems to be a situation where you might be tempted to take a short home favorite with a much better record. Don’t fall for it.
The wild card
No. 25 Air Force vs. Army (in Denver)
2:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
The pick: under 31.5 points
This total already has been bought down from open, probably because service academy games are notoriously low scoring: Since 2005, games between Navy and Air Force, Navy and Army, and Air Force and Army are 44-10-1 to the under. One of those games already happened this season, a 17-6 Falcons win over the Midshipmen that did not seriously threaten the over, even with 13 points scored over the game’s final four minutes.
We were on the under for that one, and we will be on the under for this second matchup in the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy round robin. The reason? Army’s offense is about as bad as Navy’s offense, which averaged only 1.9 yards per play this season against Air Force. The Black Knights have scored 14 points combined over their past three games, and all of them came in this past weekend’s loss to Massachusetts, which has one of the nation’s worst defenses. In the other two games, Army got shut out by Troy and LSU, averaging fewer than four yards per play in both games. Quarterback has been a problem area with usual starter Bryson Daily battling injuries and freshman Champ Harris battling ineffectiveness. Both played against the Minutemen, but neither was good. They completed just 9 of 21 passes for 158 yards, and nearly 40 percent of that yardage came on just two plays.
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Undefeated Air Force has thoughts of a New Year’s Six bowl game and has the nation’s third-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed per game (237.9). Army could struggle again against one of the nation’s better stop units. Plus, the Falcons lead the nation in rushing play percentage and the Black Knights are third, so the clock will just keep on ticking. It’s time for another service academy under.
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